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| Foto: Astrid Nydahl |
Var väntar nästa stora krig i Mellanöstern? Frågan är förstås inte lätt att besvara. Frontpage ger ett bud som inte framstår som långsökt. Det kriget kan komma att stå mellan Iran och Saudiarabien (och det finns ju sedan länge och inte minst just denna höst en rad olika händelser som pekar i den riktningen):
The Shiite coalition gained enormously during the Obama years. And as it continues to press its advantage, it is unrealistic to expect the Sunni powers in the region to accept that. Iran’s expansionism in Yemen is a threat to the Saudis. And if the conflict truly begins anywhere, it will probably be Yemen.
Iran will inevitably try to drag Israel into it. When Muslims fight Muslims, they need to pretend that they’re really fighting non-Muslims. That’s why Saddam tried to drag Israel into the Gulf War. Meanwhile the fighting in Libya continues. The Muslim Brotherhood hasn’t given up on Egypt. The Sunnis and Shiites will clash again in Iraq. Lebanon is destabilizing. And there’s always Bahrain.
A regional war won’t look anything like a world war. Instead all the individual conflicts, the sore points and simmering tensions will flare up around the same time. Iran will invest more of its forces into these conflicts. The Saudis and Egyptians will hit harder. Israel will clash with Hezbollah. There will be riots, massacres and terrorist attacks across the region. And eventually the actual powers will collide.Times of Israel skriver om situationen:
Iranian President Hassan Rouhani on Wednesday accused Riyadh of asking Israel to bomb Lebanon, calling it “shameful.”But Eisenkot said Israel had no intention of “initiating” a conflict with Hezbollah.Analysts agreed that while there was no Israeli willingness for a new war, in such a volatile region, events can quickly spiral out of control.
“For many years now Saudi Arabia and Israel have found themselves figuratively in the same trench versus Iran,” said Joshua Teitelbaum, of Israel’s Begin-Sadat Centre for Strategic Studies.
“But now that the conflict has been dialled up Israel is trying not to be pulled in. It needs to operate on its own terms.“Israel will not be dragged into a war on behalf of Saudi Arabia.”